Posted by Lilly from ? (160.129.27.22) on Wednesday, November 27, 2002 at 4:52PM :
In Reply to: honestly posted by Lilly from D007072.N1.Vanderbilt.Edu (129.59.7.72) on Wednesday, November 27, 2002 at 2:29PM :
There is a very real disconnect, at the present time, that exists between a.) the Iraqi populace & b.) the elite (Iraqi & Kurdish) & exiles who run the populace &/or who want to have control over the populace. Once this disconnect is abolished, I think a new government will be more tolerated by the people & will survive longer in Iraq.
The other thing that Makiya mentions, demilitarization, is a good thing for Iraq in general. However, the free flow of arms into the country to various factions of the opposition sets us up for a problem in the future. If the various factions that make up the opposition can find a way to be in harmony among themselves & set up a secular, territorial federation, things will hopefully improve, given that the populace is able to tolerate a new elite being established over them, esp. one that is backed by the US gov't. However, the fact is that the factions that make up the opposition are constantly at odds w/ each other & the whole group still barely acknowledges those people w/in Iraq who are not Muslim. This lack of harmony is dangerous, given that there are many armed factions that comprise this opposition group. There will be a lot of bloodshed if there is disagreement among the rulers, esp. if these disaggreements break up according to ethnic/religious affiliation, & who will call for the demilitarization of or have the power to stop these armed factions when the fighting starts? Territorial claims, esp. those rich in oil, will be enough reason for some people to fight.
BUT, all of this dreaming is ultimately resting on the assumption that the US gov't & its corporate backers will want to give that much power to a new Iraqi gov't in the 1st place. If the US is involved, you can bet that the corporations are going to demand a heavy price from the country - its oil. I believe that the opposition has already sold out to the oil industry. What I'd personally like for them to do is to stand firm against foreign oil industries & continue to keep Iraqi oil as a nationalized resource, so that revenue from the oil sales goes to the needy & public projects. But that's perhaps too much dreaming on my part.
Another thing that Makiya refuses to realistically accept is the fact that US military strategy is to basically bomb the hell out of the civilian infrastructure. I've heard him in an interview on the radio before... he says the US gov't is promising not to do these things again, but he doesn't realize that promises mean nothing to the US gov't.
-- Lilly
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